“New Zealand’s coastal climate change planning system is built on a simple legal standard: councils must plan for the likely effects of climate change, using the best available evidence. But across the country, planning is being anchored to a future that scientists now say is implausible—and, legally, should never have been treated as “likely” in the first place.
Earlier
this year, the international team responsible for the climate scenarios used by
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that the high‑emissions
pathway SSP5‑8.5 has become implausible… That matters because this scenario has
become deeply embedded in New Zealand’s planning system… It underpins the
Ministry for the Environment’s coastal hazards framework. It is reflected
in the sea level projections used by councils nationwide…And it remains
embedded in scientific studies relied on in the National Climate Change Risk
Assessment—released only weeks ago…The problem is not just scientific. It is
legal. Under the New Zealand Coastal Policy Statement, councils must take
account of the likely effects of climate change. The Climate Change
Response Act uses the same test. “Likely” does not mean “worst case”… it
excludes outcomes that are merely possible—still less those now considered
implausible…
There
are real-life consequences for continuing to believe in a scenario that IPCC
lead author, and Canterbury University’s Professor Dave Frame, described as one
“no one believes.” In Kāpiti, modelling…using high‑end assumptions based on
SSP5‑8.5, identified thousands of homes as being at risk from coastal hazards.
But when an independent review was undertaken by coastal scientists…using
scenarios aligned with likely outcomes, the number of at‑risk homes fell to
just 44...
Across
New Zealand, similar approaches are being used by Councils to inform hazard
mapping, LIM notations, and development restrictions…Unwinding that system will
be difficult. But leaving it in place is worse. This will end up in court.”
Climate change activists (like Lawyers for
Climate Action NZ and the Environmental Defence Society) have used the courts
to advance their agenda. Now the boot is on the other foot.
MORE
SEAN RUSH: New Zealand is planning for a climate future scientists now reject HERE >>>