SILENCE TO MINISTER’S DIRECTIVE

 In the last issue of LETTERBOX, we reported that on the 30^th of June, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts had written to local councils raising concerns about the continued use of RCP8.5, which the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has dismissed as “implausible”.

He said, "...the Government does not consider it appropriate for worst-case assumptions to become the default basis for investment decisions that impose significant costs on current and future ratepayers."

MINISTER’S DIRECTIVE TO COUNCILS ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE

 In the last issue of LETTERBOX, we raised the possibility that councils may face legal challenges if they continue to use RCP8.5 to justify their planning rules. This follows the United Nations committee responsible for the emissions pathways used in climate modelling rejecting RCP8.5 as "implausible".

Now, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts has written to local councils raising concerns about the continued use of RCP8.5. He said, "...the Government does not consider it appropriate for worst-case assumptions to become the default basis for investment decisions that impose significant costs on current and future ratepayers."

CARBON COSTS - $60M BAILOUT

 

The Government has handed Fletcher Building a $60 million grant to keep New Zealand's only cement manufacturing plant operating after the company warned that rising carbon credit costs under the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) would otherwise force its closure.

Golden Bay Cement, which operates the Portland plant near Whangārei, said the rising cost of carbon credits had put it at a major disadvantage compared with imported cement, which is not subject to the same carbon costs.

Fletcher said an independent assessment found the plant would likely close by 2030 without Government support, leaving New Zealand reliant on imported cement.

COUNCILS FACE COURT ACTION

The continued use of extreme climate change models is exposing councils to potential legal challenges, writes Sean Rush, a former Wellington City Councillor.

“New Zealand’s coastal climate change planning system is built on a simple legal standard: councils must plan for the likely effects of climate change, using the best available evidence. But across the country, planning is being anchored to a future that scientists now say is implausible—and, legally, should never have been treated as “likely” in the first place.

“IMPLAUSIBLE” CLIMATE CHANGE

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has recently published its next generation of climate scenarios. The significant development is that it has now described its most extreme scenario (RCP8.5) as implausible and removed it from its scenario range, stating that the assumptions behind it describe an impossible future.

This matters to Northland because RCP8.5[*] has been widely used by central government and local councils to shape climate change policy. Those policies have imposed significant costs on consumers — including higher power and fuel prices — and restrictions on local property owners.

This represents a major shift in climate science and should serve as a wake-up call for climate policymakers at every level of government. Politicians now need to follow the IPCC’s lead: remove RCP8.5 from policy frameworks and review all policies that have been based on this implausible scenario.