CANDIDATES LIST (main parties)
WHANGAREI
Candidates
Lloyd Budd (National, 60 on the party list)
Gary Payinda (Labour, 48)
Doug Graham (ACT, 38)
Vince Cocurullo (NZ First, 31)
National has held the Whangārei electorate in all but two elections since the seat was established in 1972.
The exceptions were Murray Smith in 1972 and Emily Henderson in 2020, both of whom won on the back of landslide Labour victories under Norman Kirk and Jacinda Ardern respectively. Current polling suggests no comparable surge in Labour support this election. Labour may be hoping that NZ First candidate Vince Cocurullo will draw votes away from National’s Lloyd Budd, while a more vigorous
Labour campaign than in previous elections could also improve its prospects. In 2023, National’s Shane Reti, who is retiring from politics, won the electorate with a majority of 11,424 votes.
A victory by either Labour’s Gary Payinda or NZ First’s Vince Cocurullo would be a major upset.
NORTHLAND
Grant McCallum (National, 34)
Ashleigh Latimer (Labour. 54)
Shane Jones (NZ First, 2)
Mark Cameron (ACT. not on list)
It is a similar picture in Northland, where National’s Grant McCullum holds the seat with a majority of 6,087 votes. Although his margin is smaller than National’s in Whangārei, a victory by either Labour or NZ First’s Shane Jones would still be considered an upset.
Jones has attracted strong support in previous elections, but in 2023 he received only around half as many votes as McCullum and finished behind Labour’s Willow-Jean Prime, who has since switched to contesting the Te Tai Tokerau Māori electorate.
TE TAI TOKERAU MAORI
Mariameno Kapa-Kingi (e Tai Tokerau, 2)
Willow-Jean Prime (Labour, 7)
Hūhana Lyndon (Green, 7)
Aperahama Edwards (Te Pāti Māori, not on list)
Te Tai Tokerau is shaping up as one of the most closely contested Māori electorates. At the centre of the contest is the split between sitting MP Mariameno Kapa-Kingi and her former party, Te Pāti Māori.
The seat is now a four-way contest between Kapa-Kingi, Labour’s Willow-Jean Prime, the Greens’ Hūhana Lyndon and Te Pāti Māori’s Aperahama Edwards. Kapa Kingi and Edwards are regarded as the leading contenders.
The seven Māori electorates have taken on greater significance because of Te Pāti Māori’s tactical vote splitting strategy, designed to take advantage of MMP’s overhang provisions. By encouraging supporters to give their electorate vote to a Te Pāti Māori candidate and their party vote to Labour or the Greens, the party hopes to secure more electorate seats than its party vote entitlement would otherwise provide.
This could increase the overall size of Parliament and potentially give the left bloc additional MPs. If Te Pāti Māori and its former MPs collectively win five or six electorates, but the party vote entitles Te Pāti Māori to only one or two seats, the result could be an overhang of four or five MPs.