That
strategy seeks to minimise the number of party votes used to elect Māori Party MPs
while maximising the number elected through the electorates. The result would be
to potentially increase the total number of MPs in Parliament and, more
importantly, increase the chances of a left-wing coalition.
But
commentators have pointed out that split voting could be of even greater benefit
on the right. National is very strong in the electorates and, based on current
polling, would win more electorate MPs than its party vote entitlement. That is
why some are saying voters on the right should consider giving their electorate
vote to the National candidate but their party vote to ACT or New Zealand
First, where those votes would also certainly contribute towards additional
list MPs.
Split
voting is already common. Electoral Commission figures show 35.5% of voters in
2023 gave their party vote to one party and their electorate vote elsewhere,
compared with 27% in 2020. The practice was common among minor-party
supporters. In 2023, around 70% of ACT and NZ First party voters split their
votes. Almost 60% of the voters who gave their party vote to ACT gave their
electorate vote to the National candidate.
Less
enthusiastic about the idea is the former Prime Minister, John Key. In a speech
to the party faithful, he said, "Don't try to do something you think is
clever, or try some form of so-called strategic voting…It means some of
National's most talented ministers would be replaced by someone you have never
heard of from a minor party."
He
did not mention his famous “Cup of tea” with John Banks, which orchestrated an ACT
win in Epsom, and he seems to have overlooked the fact that Chris Bishop would probably
retain Hutt South if ACT and NZ First supporters voted for Bishop instead of
their own candidate.