The latest 1News Verian poll will be a
concern for National’s five list MPs, including senior ministers Nicola Willis
and Paul Goldsmith, and Speaker of the House Gerry Brownlee.
The poll shows National slumping to 29% support, down from 38% on election night in 2023. At that level, the party would be entitled to 37 seats in Parliament, a loss of 11 from its current total of 48 seats (43 electorate MPs and five list MPs).
Of National’s 43 electorate seats, only seven
are held by margins of fewer than 5,000 votes. It is therefore possible that
National could win more electorate seats than it would be entitled to under the
party vote. If that happened, no list candidates would be elected, and National
could create an overhang in Parliament.
While the final outcome will depend on how
votes fall on 7 November, the situation raises an awkward strategic question
for National: will it deliberately soften its campaign in some electorates to
help protect key ministers on the list?
Meanwhile, the left-wing Opportunities Party
(TOP) continues to rise, polling at 4.6% (up 1.3 percentage points). On current
trends, it is on track to cross the 5% threshold and enter Parliament. Its
gains appear to be coming largely at the expense of a struggling Labour Party,
which is also haemorrhaging support to the Greens.