Election 2023 - Labour crushed

Labour is taking time out to reflect on a crushing defeat that saw them lose almost half of their MPs. What is remarkable that they even need to ask the question. Are they so blind that they did not see the electorate was angry, and are they so deaf to criticism that they can’t understand why? 

The 2020 Labour Government must rate as New Zealand’s worst-ever government, not only for its litany of failures but for its arrogance and disrespect towards democracy. Fortunately, democracy prevailed and has yet again sent a message that power is in the hands of the electors not the elected.

It was Chris Hipkins who fronted with an emotional declaration of defeat, but the defeat falls on the lap of Jacinda Ardern. In the end ordinary everyday Kiwis saw through the façade of compassion and empathy and saw or felt the destructive effects of her extreme and divisive form of socialist “kindness”

Locally Labour has been humiliated by resounding defeat. In Whangarei Shane Reti has been returned with a 10,000 vote majority. In Northland, cabinet minister Willow-Jean Prime has been booted out by Nationals rookie Grant McCullum by 5600 votes, and in Kaipara Chris Penk scored a massive 16,000 majority.

Key points from the election result include the return of NZ First, with eight MPs, and more than likely the kingmaker role. Their vote was not enough for Gavin Benney to become a list MP.

The winners

The winners were National, ACT and NZ First. National and ACT gained 61 seats combined, a majority of 1 in a Parliament of 121 (120 plus 1 overhang seat care of the Maori Party). The Port Waikato by-election to be held next month will almost certainly deliver one more seat to National to give a National/ACT coalition a 62 to 60 majority. That’s tight, and those figures are likely to tighten up even further after special votes are counted, putting NZ First in a key negotiating position. 

Maori seats

The Maori Party has won four of the seven Maori seats and came a close second in the three retained by Labour.

That battle produced an upset in the seat of Hauraki-Waikato. Nanaia Mahuta has been defeated and without a list seat as a lifeline, is out of Parliament. Mahuta held the seat for 27 years. She has been defeated by Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke who will be the youngest MP at 21. She represents the new generation of radical Maori that are now aggressively challenging their more conservative elders. The departure of Mahuta would be a cause for celebration if it were not for the fact that she is being replaced with a member of a party that is even more radical and anti-democratic.

The loss of Te Tai Tonga also ends the reign of the Tirikatene family in that seat dating back to 1967.

These losses are a massive blow for Labour. None of Labour’s Maori seats are safe from the Maori Party offensive. No doubt they will be looking for a clean sweep in 2026.

Ironically, Labour has massively advanced the Maori agenda since 2020. The He Puapua blueprint for co-governance that Labour had concealed from the public prior to the 2020 election had been put into effect throughout the government service. That radical initiative was clearly not radical enough for the extremist Maori Party.

With 30 (25 percent) of the 121 MPs in the new Parliament of Maori ancestry, the obvious question is why we need the Maori seats at all when Maori are overrepresented in Parliament via the general seats. That question is more compelling given the Maori Party only gained 2.6% of the vote, despite Maori representing 17% of the general population so it cannot be said that they represent Maori or have a mandate to speak for or on behalf of Maori. In 1986 the Royal Commission on the Electoral System warned that Maori would gain a disproportionate influence in an MMP Parliament if the Maori seats were not abolished. That has proven to be the case. At one time or another National, ACT and NZ First have all promised a referendum on the future of the Maori seats. Isn’t it time it was now held?  

Wasted vote

The wasted vote totalled 119,000 or 5.2% spread among 11 minnow parties. This is lower than the 8% wasted in 2020 when NZ First failed to reach the 5% threshold.  None of the minnows came close to the 5% threshold. TOP was the highest polling at around 2%, followed by NZ Loyal at 1.15%.

Democracy NZ polled poorly, gaining only 5,544 (0.24%) votes nationwide, and in Northland, Matt King polled 4th in the candidate race. 

Freedoms NZ (an umbrella group of four parties) did not fare much better, gaining just over 7,000 votes (0.31%).