National’s Grant McCallum is well ahead of Willow-Jean Prime (Labour) who won the seat from National in 2020. He is also well ahead of Matt King from Democracy NZ and Shane Jones from NZ First.
Both NZ First and Democracy NZ are polling well below the 5% party vote threshold and need to win the seat to guarantee their party a place in Parliament. Both have previously expressed confidence that they have the support to win, but the poll results show otherwise.
When asked who they would give their electorate vote to, only 9% said Shane Jones and just 3% said Matt King. McCallum and Prime polled 54% and 26% respectively.
In 2020 Willow-Jean Prime won the seat by just 163 votes, making it one of the most marginal seats in the country. Although she will almost certainly lose the seat, Prime is expected to remain in Parliament via the party list.
Of those who gave their party vote to Labour in 2020, only half said they would do so again. About a third were undecided who they would vote for, or if they would vote at all, but they were certain about not supporting Labour.
If the same sentiment is occurring nationwide, as is likely, then Labour would poll between 25% and 30% and lose 30 of the 64 MPs elected in 2020.
