Northland electorate may decide the next government

With both major political parties running neck-and-neck in the opinion polls, the Northland Electorate may determine who becomes the government on 14 October.  The seat is currently held by Labour’s Willow-Jean Prime, who won it from the then National Party MP Matt King. Although King retained the seat on election night, that was overturned after the counting of the special votes, giving Prime a paper-thin margin of just 163 votes! 

Matt King is again contesting the seat, but this time as the leader of a new party, Democracy NZ. He is up against Shane Jones from NZ First, and National’s Grant McCallum, a farmer from Maungaturoto. 

Both Democracy NZ and NZ First are polling below the 5% threshold and need to win an electorate to gain seats in Parliament. If they don't win a seat, and fail to reach 5% party vote, their votes will be wasted. Both NZ First and Democracy NZ have said they would not enter into a coalition with Labour. 

Come 14 October a National/ACT coalition may need a third party to gain +60 seats. 

Ironically a win by either the National or Labour candidate in Northland would have NO EFFECT on the number of MPs that party would gain in Parliament – but electing either Shane Jones or Matt King would give National another coalition partner. 

The question is whether National will do for NZ First or Democracy NZ what it did for ACT in Epsom when Rodney Hide was its leader. Or will National voters figure it out for themselves and give their party vote to National but their electorate vote to either Jones or King? 

Links:

https://democracynz.org

https://www.nzfirst.nz/